Policy making and planning for the port sector: paradigms in conflict

The UK has a requirement for people with seafaring expertise to fill a wide range of jobs in the maritime-related sector of the economy ashore. The pool of seagoing ships' officers has now reached the level where shore-based demand for such officers cannot be satisfied by natural wastage from this pool alone. This paper considers the implications of this for the Government's recently announced strategy for maintaining the maritime skills base. The paper concludes that it is inevitable that the Government's present strategy will fail, and suggests what measures need to be taken if the skills base is to be saved.     

Some aspects of cruise ships

Historically there have been only two groups involved in the conflict that has engulfed the US maritime industry for the past fifty years maritime labour unions and shipping companies. The configuration of these groups at different times in this struggle, has led to distinct periods of conflict in the industry. This paper analyses the basis and continuation of the problem.     

Notes and Comments

Comment by John R. Clark

Comment by Kem Lowry

Comment by Stephen B. Olsen

Response by Jens Sorensen     

The demand for local access to coastal recreation in southern New England

Coastal lands provide popular outdoor recreation opportunities including beach recreation, fishing, boating, and wildlife viewing. Published studies measuring the demand for access to coastal lands generally have focused on the recreational value of intensively used beaches, which comprise only a portion of the New England coastline. This article examines the recreational demand for coastal access to a local, free‐access site in southern New England. The study uses data obtained from on‐site interviews conducted during the summer of 1995 at Gooseberry Island, Massachusetts. The estimated average value of a visitor‐day during the summer season is $3.06 for weekdays and $4.18 for weekends and holidays. While these values are at the low end of the range of values published in existing literature addressing beach recreation, the aggregate value of recreation benefits derived from public access to undeveloped coastal areas likely are significant.     

The authors in this issue

Cambridge is a small free standing city in the UK with a population of 105 000. In recent years it has endured a worsening congestion problem essentially as a result of employment growth within the city and the narrow street layout. This is not a unique problem but one which is particularly acute in historic cities. In 1990, Congestion Metering was advanced, in addition to a number of other measures, as a means of managing traffic demand within the city. It has generated a great deal of interest internationally, particularly the field trial which took place in October 1993. This was the first time that any form of road pricing had been demonstrated practically in the UK. The aim of this article is to provide a review, establishing why the idea of Congestion Metering was originally considered and why, at least in the short to medium term, it is unlikely to be implemented in a Cambridge context. The process by which, if adopted, it is envisaged that Congestion Metering would be introduced is outlined, and the relative merits and potential weaknesses of such a demand management measure. Finally, the author considers the real problem of ‘public scepticism’ which needs to be addressed if Congestion Metering is to avoid the pitfalls which have bedevilled other road pricing schemes world‐wide.     

Automated detection of lane-blocking freeway incidents using artificial neural networks

A major source of urban freeway delay in the U.S. is non-recurring congestion caused by incidents. The automated detection of incidents is an important function of a freeway traffic management center. A number of incident detection algorithms, using inductive loop data as input, have been developed over the past several decades, and a few of them are being deployed at urban freeway systems in major cities. These algorithms have shown varying degrees of success in their detection performance. In this paper, we present a new incident detection technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). Three types of neural network models, namely the multi-layer feedforward (MLF), the self-organizing feature map (SOFM) and adaptive resonance theory 2 (ART2), were developed to classify traffic surveillance data obtained from loop detectors, with the objective of using the classified output to detect lane-blocking freeway incidents. The models were developed with simulation data from a study site and tested with both simulation and field data at the same site. The MLF was found to have the highest potential, among the three ANNs, to achieve a better incident detection performance. The MLF was also tested with limited field data collected from three other freeway locations to explore its transferability. Our results and analyzes with data from the study site as well as the three test sites have shown that the MLF consistently detected most of the lane-blocking incidents and typically gave a false alarm rate lower than the California, McMaster and Minnesota algorithms currently in use.     

Occupational mortality among British merchant seafarers (1986-1995)

The decline of the British merchant fleet in recent years has led to an increasing proportion of British seafarers taking employment in flags of convenience and other foreign-registered vessels. It is then a matter of some importance as to whether the British seafarers who serve in foreign ships are at greater risk of mortality and, when fatalities do occur, whether the deaths are appropriately investigated. Using information obtained from files at the Registrar General for Shipping, the Marine Accident Investigation Branch and many Coroners, it is evident that British seafarers serving in foreign vessels were, during the study period 1986-1995, at greater risk of mortality through work-related accidents, suicides and unexplained disappearances at sea. Those serving in the British fleet, however, died more frequently through illnesses, and through off-duty accidents and drowning. When fatalities occurred in the British fleet, the relevant log book extracts were routinely deposited with the appropriate British authorities; for deaths in FOC vessels these documents were rarely forthcoming. While the deaths of British seafarers were investigated in the large majority of cases, foreign flag state authorities seldom conducted inquiries; it was the British authorities who usually conducted the investigations.     

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.